Congrats on making it to Emperor class!
Brother Apostate
JoinedPosts by Brother Apostate
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7
OKAY THIS IS IT MY NUMBER IS 3000
by orangefatcat inwell it took me a few years to make it but finally after the absenses from the board due to illness i am proud of myself.
still not that well but better then some of you who are and others who have been quite ill. i know how all of you feel.
your in my prayers.. so who will be first in line to give me 3,000 paddy wacks?????????
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8
Pay Attention to the Flock Book???
by RichieRich incan someone please provide me with a good, reliable link to the pdf version of the annotated pay attention book??.
please note that i need the one with the notes in it, not just the plain one that's been around forever.. .
i do greatly appreciate it..
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Diabetes Gets CURED! Another 'Worldly' Triumph!
by metatron inhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article1637528.ece.
if men learn to regenerate the human body, will they need empty watchtower promises anymore?.
metatron.
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Brother Apostate
Yes, adult stem cell research looks promising on numerous fronts.
Hopefully, this actually leads to a permanent cure!
BA
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14
My Technology Forum Skin - thoughts?
by KW13 ini own with some friends a tech forum for discussing computers etc.. anyhow i am in the process with one of my friends in creating a new skin or theme for the forum itself.. your thoughts on the skin were making?.
view screenshot below.
click thumbnail to open bigger image.. .
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Brother Apostate
KW13,
Looks good to me, you shameless self-promoter!
BA
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19
Does looks matter much to you?
by JH inwhat importance do you place in the looks of a friend, or lover?.
does the interior stand out more than the exterior shell which is skin deep?.
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Brother Apostate
Looks are the initial attraction for a lover. Must pass the looks test first, then the personality/mental health/intelligence "test".
All are then just as important, otherwise, it's just "settling" for less, which leads to disappointment.
Friends- looks not important, but the rest are, imo.
BA
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48
MIT Scientist: 'Alarm over climate change is based on ignorance...
by Bryan inthe earth will always be changing.. what ever happened to the acid-rain, sky is falling, bs?.
learning to live with global warming.
by richard s. lindzennewsweek international"the current alarm rests on the false assumption not only that we live in a perfect world, temperaturewise, but also that our warming forecasts for the year 2040 are somehow more reliable than the weatherman's forecast for next week.".
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Brother Apostate
Six of Nine,
one has to assume that he believes said forcings will contribute exactly nothing to an accurate model of potential outcomes.
As usual, your reading comprehension needs work.
In addition, your mind-reading crystal ball doesn't work.
"Something" was contributed to the model, therefore "something" is reflected in the outcome. How significant is "something" What shall be done to reverse "something" if it is a negative "something"? "Anything"?
BA- When you assume, you make an...you know the rest.
PS- Don't assume so much.
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48
MIT Scientist: 'Alarm over climate change is based on ignorance...
by Bryan inthe earth will always be changing.. what ever happened to the acid-rain, sky is falling, bs?.
learning to live with global warming.
by richard s. lindzennewsweek international"the current alarm rests on the false assumption not only that we live in a perfect world, temperaturewise, but also that our warming forecasts for the year 2040 are somehow more reliable than the weatherman's forecast for next week.".
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Brother Apostate
Dan,
I don't think you read what I wrote. I've already answered your question. To be terse:
1- Models are only as good as the current heuristics and analytics incorporated within the modeling software, and the accuracy of the assumptions and data used to drive the model.
2- Accurately representing all forcings, including deforestation and agricultural practices is necessary. Garbage in, garbage out.
BA- Repeating himself.
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48
MIT Scientist: 'Alarm over climate change is based on ignorance...
by Bryan inthe earth will always be changing.. what ever happened to the acid-rain, sky is falling, bs?.
learning to live with global warming.
by richard s. lindzennewsweek international"the current alarm rests on the false assumption not only that we live in a perfect world, temperaturewise, but also that our warming forecasts for the year 2040 are somehow more reliable than the weatherman's forecast for next week.".
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Brother Apostate
Dan,
Just the other day you told me that today's computers have enough horsepower to calculate all this to a high degree of accuracy, but the scientists creating the models don't understand the data well enough to take perfect advantage of this precision.
Yes, the computer hardware has the horsepower, that is one issue. There are at least two others:
1.- The modeling software is continually being improved, such that the previous generation of modeling software has been shown to have errors, and so this is also the case with the existing modeling software. Discrete event (you may think of these as micro models) are fairly robust and accurate when fed with (fairly small, well known) representative data sets. Analytical models (you may think of these as macro models) are at a stage of development that can be used, (if the assumptions and data sources are representative) to guide the modeler to likely conclusions, or results. On the other hand, if the data sets and assumptions fail to account for some forcings, or weights some forcings incorrectly, then the analytical model provides an incorrect result. If next week's forecast, based on the models is only right half of the time, it is also wrong half of the time. That is a well known example.
2. It's all about understanding what the forcings are, how much each contributes, and accurately representing these in the models. How does one accurately represent the contribution or lack thereof of one known major forcing- deforestation and agricultural practices? Right now those forcings are assumptions at best.
How many more years of research do you suppose needs to be done before the models are accurate to your liking? 30? 50?
Who knows. Accurate to my liking isn't the issue. Accurate to something other than a vaguely held warm and fuzzy notion that we don't have to look at the man behind the curtain will do.
And how are you so certain that the models are inaccurate?
I've answered that above.
BA- Not jumping to conclusions based on bad models.
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48
MIT Scientist: 'Alarm over climate change is based on ignorance...
by Bryan inthe earth will always be changing.. what ever happened to the acid-rain, sky is falling, bs?.
learning to live with global warming.
by richard s. lindzennewsweek international"the current alarm rests on the false assumption not only that we live in a perfect world, temperaturewise, but also that our warming forecasts for the year 2040 are somehow more reliable than the weatherman's forecast for next week.".
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48
MIT Scientist: 'Alarm over climate change is based on ignorance...
by Bryan inthe earth will always be changing.. what ever happened to the acid-rain, sky is falling, bs?.
learning to live with global warming.
by richard s. lindzennewsweek international"the current alarm rests on the false assumption not only that we live in a perfect world, temperaturewise, but also that our warming forecasts for the year 2040 are somehow more reliable than the weatherman's forecast for next week.".
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Brother Apostate
It seems almost impossible to believe that you would not be mortified by these embarrassing threads you have participated in, let alone advertise them-- where in them do you feel you scored any advantage?
I don't feel any need to "score an advantage", you obviously do, otherwise, why make the comment, right? You'd have to be very obtuse to think you are in a position to score any advantage by posting your opinions on a public forum.
You might also have noticed a comment of my own in one of them, indicating my previous familiarity. ... might have been useful before deciding to issue your rebuke.
Talk about advertising an embarrasment! That topic begins with the assumption that there are actually Global Warming "deniers", missing what the debate is about, and goes downhill from there.
Of course, it is hard to "put your foot in your mouth" when it is engaged in emitting such shining beacons of knowledge and wisdom as "PS- We'll have to wait and see."
It is knowledge and wisdom to understand what is actually causing a phenomenon, and then determining what can be done to combat its negative effects. Jumping to premature conclusions, doing "something" based on little more than a hunch, is immature at best, and often creates "solutions" that are more damaging than the "problem".
BA- We'll have to wait and see.
PS- Jumping to conclusions based on incomplete understanding of the forcings and how much each known forcing contributes to the models is mere fortunetelling.